Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 1.837603e-01 0.220653 0.260257 0.305639 0.355914 0.409631 0.471092
2025-02-23 1.274053e-01 0.175203 0.230779 0.298943 0.379108 0.469289 0.577305
2025-03-02 8.405392e-02 0.134462 0.198263 0.281924 0.385874 0.508173 0.660340
2025-03-09 6.102754e-02 0.113279 0.184870 0.284343 0.413620 0.571127 0.772776
2025-03-16 4.134478e-02 0.091344 0.166143 0.276465 0.426269 0.614860 0.862643
2025-03-23 3.228970e-02 0.082912 0.164280 0.289885 0.465974 0.692823 0.996212
2025-03-30 2.269728e-02 0.070396 0.153881 0.289449 0.486088 0.745523 1.098797
2025-04-06 1.590049e-02 0.060497 0.145574 0.290503 0.507309 0.799422 1.203422
2025-04-13 1.165827e-02 0.054196 0.141996 0.297845 0.537013 0.864768 1.323683
2025-04-20 8.695961e-03 0.049543 0.140388 0.307687 0.570168 0.935088 1.451343
2025-04-27 6.281514e-03 0.044984 0.138028 0.315724 0.600495 1.001811 1.575033
2025-05-04 3.870732e-03 0.038420 0.130299 0.313725 0.615136 1.046623 1.669742
2025-05-11 2.494231e-03 0.034421 0.127393 0.320086 0.643283 1.111825 1.794371
2025-05-18 1.281356e-03 0.029091 0.120262 0.318088 0.658051 1.158178 1.894062
2025-05-25 3.743512e-04 0.022093 0.106995 0.303116 0.651045 1.172594 1.949752
2025-06-01 1.332149e-04 0.019360 0.103986 0.307268 0.674875 1.232057 2.068439
2025-06-08 9.350324e-06 0.015278 0.095696 0.299900 0.679004 1.262246 2.146364
2025-06-15 8.482342e-07 0.014702 0.098106 0.314599 0.720609 1.348793 2.304556
2025-06-22 NaN 0.012325 0.093715 0.314459 0.736696 1.397159 2.409151
2025-06-29 NaN 0.010426 0.090208 0.315758 0.755076 1.449077 2.519210
2025-07-06 NaN 0.009414 0.089720 0.323620 0.785033 1.518946 2.655565
2025-07-13 NaN 0.008742 0.090391 0.334073 0.819715 1.596386 2.803382
2025-07-20 NaN 0.007956 0.090261 0.342591 0.851065 1.669032 2.944907